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submitted by BTClevels to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

No gods, no kings, only NOPE - or divining the future with options flows. [Part 2: A Random Walk and Price Decoherence]

tl;dr -
1) Stock prices move continuously because different market participants end up having different ideas of the future value of a stock.
2) This difference in valuations is part of the reason we have volatility.
3) IV crush happens as a consequence of future possibilities being extinguished at a binary catalyst like earnings very rapidly, as opposed to the normal slow way.
I promise I'm getting to the good parts, but I'm also writing these as a guidebook which I can use later so people never have to talk to me again.
In this part I'm going to start veering a bit into the speculation territory (e.g. ideas I believe or have investigated, but aren't necessary well known) but I'm going to make sure those sections are properly marked as speculative (and you can feel free to ignore/dismiss them). Marked as [Lily's Speculation].
As some commenters have pointed out in prior posts, I do not have formal training in mathematical finance/finance (my background is computer science, discrete math, and biology), so often times I may use terms that I've invented which have analogous/existing terms (e.g. the law of surprise is actually the first law of asset pricing applied to derivatives under risk neutral measure, but I didn't know that until I read the papers later). If I mention something wrong, please do feel free to either PM me (not chat) or post a comment, and we can discuss/I can correct it! As always, buyer beware.
This is the first section also where you do need to be familiar with the topics I've previously discussed, which I'll add links to shortly (my previous posts:
1) https://www.reddit.com/thecorporation/comments/jck2q6/no_gods_no_kings_only_nope_or_divining_the_future/
2) https://www.reddit.com/thecorporation/comments/jbzzq4/why_options_trading_sucks_or_the_law_of_surprise/
---
A Random Walk Down Bankruptcy
A lot of us have probably seen the term random walk, maybe in the context of A Random Walk Down Wall Street, which seems like a great book I'll add to my list of things to read once I figure out how to control my ADD. It seems obvious, then, what a random walk means - when something is moving, it basically means that the next move is random. So if my stock price is $1 and I can move in $0.01 increments, if the stock price is truly randomly walking, there should be roughly a 50% chance it moves up in the next second (to $1.01) or down (to $0.99).
If you've traded for more than a hot minute, this concept should seem obvious, because especially on the intraday, it usually isn't clear why price moves the way it does (despite what chartists want to believe, and I'm sure a ton of people in the comments will tell me why fettucini lines and Batman doji tell them things). For a simple example, we can look at SPY's chart from Friday, Oct 16, 2020:

https://preview.redd.it/jgg3kup9dpt51.png?width=1368&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf8e08402ccef20832c96203126b60c23277ccc2
I'm sure again 7 different people can tell me 7 different things about why the chart shape looks the way it does, or how if I delve deeply enough into it I can find out which man I'm going to marry in 2024, but to a rationalist it isn't exactly apparent at why SPY's price declined from 349 to ~348.5 at around 12:30 PM, or why it picked up until about 3 PM and then went into precipitous decline (although I do have theories why it declined EOD, but that's for another post).
An extremely clever or bored reader from my previous posts could say, "Is this the price formation you mentioned in the law of surprise post?" and the answer is yes. If we relate it back to the individual buyer or seller, we can explain the concept of a stock price's random walk as such:
Most market participants have an idea of an asset's true value (an idealized concept of what an asset is actually worth), which they can derive using models or possibly enough brain damage. However, an asset's value at any given time is not worth one value (usually*), but a spectrum of possible values, usually representing what the asset should be worth in the future. A naive way we can represent this without delving into to much math (because let's face it, most of us fucking hate math) is:
Current value of an asset = sum over all (future possible value multiplied by the likelihood of that value)
In actuality, most models aren't that simple, but it does generalize to a ton of more complicated models which you need more than 7th grade math to understand (Black-Scholes, DCF, blah blah blah).
While in many cases the first term - future possible value - is well defined (Tesla is worth exactly $420.69 billion in 2021, and maybe we all can agree on that by looking at car sales and Musk tweets), where it gets more interesting is the second term - the likelihood of that value occurring. [In actuality, the price of a stock for instance is way more complicated, because a stock can be sold at any point in the future (versus in my example, just the value in 2021), and needs to account for all values of Tesla at any given point in the future.]
How do we estimate the second term - the likelihood of that value occurring? For this class, it actually doesn't matter, because the key concept is this idea: even with all market participants having the same information, we do anticipate that every participant will have a slightly different view of future likelihoods. Why is that? There's many reasons. Some participants may undervalue risk (aka WSB FD/yolos) and therefore weight probabilities of gaining lots of money much more heavily than going bankrupt. Some participants may have alternative data which improves their understanding of what the future values should be, therefore letting them see opportunity. Some participants might overvalue liquidity, and just want to GTFO and thereby accept a haircut on their asset's value to quickly unload it (especially in markets with low liquidity). Some participants may just be yoloing and not even know what Fastly does before putting their account all in weekly puts (god bless you).
In the end, it doesn't matter either the why, but the what: because of these diverging interpretations, over time, we can expect the price of an asset to drift from the current value even with no new information added. In most cases, the calculations that market participants use (which I will, as a Lily-ism, call the future expected payoff function, or FEPF) ends up being quite similar in aggregate, and this is why asset prices likely tend to move slightly up and down for no reason (or rather, this is one interpretation of why).
At this point, I expect the 20% of you who know what I'm talking about or have a finance background to say, "Oh but blah blah efficient market hypothesis contradicts random walk blah blah blah" and you're correct, but it also legitimately doesn't matter here. In the long run, stock prices are clearly not a random walk, because a stock's value is obviously tied to the company's fundamentals (knock on wood I don't regret saying this in the 2020s). However, intraday, in the absence of new, public information, it becomes a close enough approximation.
Also, some of you might wonder what happens when the future expected payoff function (FEPF) I mentioned before ends up wildly diverging for a stock between participants. This could happen because all of us try to short Nikola because it's quite obviously a joke (so our FEPF for Nikola could, let's say, be 0), while the 20 or so remaining bagholders at NikolaCorporation decide that their FEPF of Nikola is $10,000,000 a share). One of the interesting things which intuitively makes sense, is for nearly all stocks, the amount of divergence among market participants in their FEPF increases substantially as you get farther into the future.
This intuitively makes sense, even if you've already quit trying to understand what I'm saying. It's quite easy to say, if at 12:51 PM SPY is worth 350.21 that likely at 12:52 PM SPY will be worth 350.10 or 350.30 in all likelihood. Obviously there are cases this doesn't hold, but more likely than not, prices tend to follow each other, and don't gap up/down hard intraday. However, what if I asked you - given SPY is worth 350.21 at 12:51 PM today, what will it be worth in 2022?
Many people will then try to half ass some DD about interest rates and Trump fleeing to Ecuador to value SPY at 150, while others will assume bull markets will continue indefinitely and SPY will obviously be 7000 by then. The truth is -- no one actually knows, because if you did, you wouldn't be reading a reddit post on this at 2 AM in your jammies.
In fact, if you could somehow figure out the FEPF of all market participants at any given time, assuming no new information occurs, you should be able to roughly predict the true value of an asset infinitely far into the future (hint: this doesn't exactly hold, but again don't @ me).
Now if you do have a finance background, I expect gears will have clicked for some of you, and you may see strong analogies between the FEPF divergence I mentioned, and a concept we're all at least partially familiar with - volatility.
Volatility and Price Decoherence ("IV Crush")
Volatility, just like the Greeks, isn't exactly a real thing. Most of us have some familiarity with implied volatility on options, mostly when we get IV crushed the first time and realize we just lost $3000 on Tesla calls.
If we assume that the current price should represent the weighted likelihoods of all future prices (the random walk), volatility implies the following two things:
  1. Volatility reflects the uncertainty of the current price
  2. Volatility reflects the uncertainty of the future price for every point in the future where the asset has value (up to expiry for options)
[Ignore this section if you aren't pedantic] There's obviously more complex mathematics, because I'm sure some of you will argue in the comments that IV doesn't go up monotonically as option expiry date goes longer and longer into the future, and you're correct (this is because asset pricing reflects drift rate and other factors, as well as certain assets like the VIX end up having cost of carry).
Volatility in options is interesting as well, because in actuality, it isn't something that can be exactly computed -- it arises as a plug between the idealized value of an option (the modeled price) and the real, market value of an option (the spot price). Additionally, because the makeup of market participants in an asset's market changes over time, and new information also comes in (thereby increasing likelihood of some possibilities and reducing it for others), volatility does not remain constant over time, either.
Conceptually, volatility also is pretty easy to understand. But what about our friend, IV crush? I'm sure some of you have bought options to play events, the most common one being earnings reports, which happen quarterly for every company due to regulations. For the more savvy, you might know of expected move, which is a calculation that uses the volatility (and therefore price) increase of at-the-money options about a month out to calculate how much the options market forecasts the underlying stock price to move as a response to ER.
Binary Catalyst Events and Price Decoherence
Remember what I said about price formation being a gradual, continuous process? In the face of special circumstances, in particularly binary catalyst events - events where the outcome is one of two choices, good (1) or bad (0) - the gradual part gets thrown out the window. Earnings in particular is a common and notable case of a binary event, because the price will go down (assuming the company did not meet the market's expectations) or up (assuming the company exceeded the market's expectations) (it will rarely stay flat, so I'm not going to address that case).
Earnings especially is interesting, because unlike other catalytic events, they're pre-scheduled (so the whole market expects them at a certain date/time) and usually have publicly released pre-estimations (guidance, analyst predictions). This separates them from other binary catalysts (e.g. FSLY dipping 30% on guidance update) because the market has ample time to anticipate the event, and participants therefore have time to speculate and hedge on the event.
In most binary catalyst events, we see rapid fluctuations in price, usually called a gap up or gap down, which is caused by participants rapidly intaking new information and changing their FEPF accordingly. This is for the most part an anticipated adjustment to the FEPF based on the expectation that earnings is a Very Big Deal (TM), and is the reason why volatility and therefore option premiums increase so dramatically before earnings.
What makes earnings so interesting in particular is the dramatic effect it can have on all market participants FEPF, as opposed to let's say a Trump tweet, or more people dying of coronavirus. In lots of cases, especially the FEPF of the short term (3-6 months) rapidly changes in response to updated guidance about a company, causing large portions of the future possibility spectrum to rapidly and spectacularly go to zero. In an instant, your Tesla 10/30 800Cs go from "some value" to "not worth the electrons they're printed on".
[Lily's Speculation] This phenomena, I like to call price decoherence, mostly as an analogy to quantum mechanical processes which produce similar results (the collapse of a wavefunction on observation). Price decoherence occurs at a widespread but minor scale continuously, which we normally call price formation (and explains portions of the random walk derivation explained above), but hits a special limit in the face of binary catalyst events, as in an instant rapid portions of the future expected payoff function are extinguished, versus a more gradual process which occurs over time (as an option nears expiration).
Price decoherence, mathematically, ends up being a more generalizable case of the phenomenon we all love to hate - IV crush. Price decoherence during earnings collapses the future expected payoff function of a ticker, leading large portions of the option chain to be effectively worthless (IV crush). It has interesting implications, especially in the case of hedged option sellers, our dear Market Makers. This is because given the expectation that they maintain delta-gamma neutral, and now many of the options they have written are now worthless and have 0 delta, what do they now have to do?
They have to unwind.
[/Lily's Speculation]
- Lily
submitted by the_lilypad to thecorporation [link] [comments]

The classic WSB story - lost it all.

Going to keep this simple. EDIT: this isn’t simple and I should write a short story on this.
I am generally risk averse. I hate losing $100 at the casino, I hate paying extra for guac at chipotles, I will return something or price match an item for a few dollars of savings. I am generally frugal.
But, I somehow had no issues losing 10k in options...
How I started
I remember my first trades like they were yesterday. I was trading the first hydrogen run-up in 2014 (FCEL, BLDP, PLUG) and made a few hundred dollars over a couple weeks.
I quickly progressed to penny stocks / biotech binary events and general stock market gambling mid-2014. I was making a few % here and there but the trend was down in total account value. I was the king of buying the peak in run-ups. I managed to make it out of 2014 close to break-even to slightly down.
WSB Era
March 2015 was my first option trade. It was an AXP - American Express - monthly option trade. I saw one of the regular option traders/services post a block of 10,000 calls that had been bought for 1.3 and I followed the trade with 10 call options for a total of $1300.
I woke up the next day to an analyst upgrade on AXP and was up 50% on my position. I was addicted! I day-dreamed for days about my AXP over night success. I think around that time there was some sort of Buffet buyout of Heinz and an option trade that was up a ridiculous amount of %%%. I wanted to hit it BIG.
I came up with the idea that all I needed to reach my goal was a few 100% over night gains/ 1k>2k>4k>8k> etc. I convinced myself that I would have no problems being patient for the exact criteria that I had set and worked on some other trades.
Remember, the first win is always free.
I was trading options pretty regularly from March 2015 until August 2016. During my best week I was up 20k and could feel the milli within reach. I can remember the exact option trade (HTZ) and I was trading weeklies on it.
For those who have been in the market long enough, you will remember the huge drawdown of August 2015.
I lost half my account value on QCOM calls (100 of them) that I followed at the beginning of July and never materialized. I watched them eventually go to 0. It was another 10,000 block that was probably a hedge or sold.
In August 2015 there were some issues with China and all of us woke up to stocks gapping down huge. Unfortunately my idea of buying far dated calls during the following days/weeks after the crash went sideways. I quickly learned that an increase in volatility causes a rise in option prices and I was paying a premium for calls that were going to lose value very quickly (the infamous IV crush).
I kept trading options into the end of 2015 and managed to maintain my account value positive but the trading fees for the year amounted to $30,000+. My broker was loving it.
I tried all the services, all the strategies. I created rules for my option plays: 1. No earnings 2. Only follow the big buys at a discount (10,000 blocks or more). 3. No weekly options 4. Take profit right away 5. Take losses quickly 6. etc.
I had a whole note book of option plays that I was writing down and following. I was paying for option services that all of you know about - remember, they make money on the services and not trading.
I even figured out a loop-hole with my broker: if I didn’t have enough money in my account, I could change my ask price to .01 and then change it to market buy and I would only need to accept a warning ⚠️ for the order to go through. I was able to day trade the option and make money, who cares if I didnt have enough? After a few months of this, I got a call from my broker that told me to stop and that I would be suspended if I continued with this.
By the way, I was always able to satisfy the debit on the account - so it wasn’t an issue of lack of funds.
Lost it all. Started taking money from lines of credits, every penny that I earned and losing it quicker and quicker.
I was a full on gambler but I was convinced that 8 trades would offset all the losses. I kept getting drawn in to the idea that I could hit a homerun and make it out a hero.
I eventually hit rock bottom on some weekly expiring FSLR options that I bought hours before expiration and said to myself - what the f are you doing? I resolved to invest for the long term and stop throwing tendies away.
The feeling was reinforced during the birth of my first born and I thought - what a loser this kid will think of me if he knew how much I was gambling and wasting my life. It was a really powerful moment looking at my kid and reflecting on this idea.
I decided at that point I was going to save every penny I had and invest it on new issues with potential.
Fall 2016
TTD, COUP and NTNX IPO ‘ed I decided I was going to throw every dollar at these and did so for the next few months. I eventually started using margin (up to 215%) and buying these for the next 6 months. They paid out and managed to make it over 100k within the year.
The first 100k was hard but once I crossed it, I never fell below this magic number.
2017 - I did some day trading but it was mostly obsessing over the above issues. I did gamble on a few options here and there but never more than 1k.
2018 - SFIX was my big winner, I bought a gap up in June 2018 and my combined account value had crossed 400k by August 2018. I was really struggling at crossing the 500k account value and experienced 3 x 30-40% drawdowns over the next 2 years before I finally crossed the 500k barrier and have never looked back.
I still made some mistakes over the next few months - AKAO & GSUM come to mind. Both of these resulted in 20k+ losses. Fortunately my winners were much bigger than my losers.
I thought about giving up and moving to index funds - but i was doing well - just experiencing large drawdowns because of leverage.
2019 big winners were CRON SWAV STNE.
2017 / 2018 / 2019 all had six digit capital gains on my tax returns.
At the beginning of 2020 I was still day trading on margin (180-220%) and got a call from my broker that they were tightening up my margin as my account was analyzed by the risk department and deemed too risky. Believe it or not this was right before the covid crash. I brought my margin down to 100-110% of account value and even though the drawdown from covid hit hard, I wasn’t wiped out.
I stayed the course and bought FSLY / RH during the big march drawdown and this resulted in some nice gains over the next few months.
I am constantly changing and testing my investment strategy but let me tell you that obsessing over 1 or 2 ideas and throwing every penny at it and holding for a few years is the best strategy. It may not work at some point but right now it does.
I still day trade but I trade with 10k or less on each individual position. It allows me minimize my losses and my winners are 1-7%. I am able to consistently make between 3-700$/ a day on day trades using the above strategy. I still take losses and still dream about hitting it big with an option trade but dont feel the need to put it all on the line every month / week.
I finally crossed into the two , club. I know people are going to ask for proof or ban but I am not earning anything for posting and the details about some of the trades should be proof enough that I kept a detailed journal of it all. I have way more to write but these are the highlights.
Eventually I will share how I build a position in a story I love. I still sell buy and sell to early but I am working on improving.
TL:DR - I gambled, lost it all and gambled some more lost more. I made it out alive. I have only sold calls/puts lately.
The one common denominator in all successful people is how much they obsess over 1 or 2 ideas. Do the same. All the winners on this sub have gone all in on one idea (FSLY / TSLA ). Stick with new stories or ones that are changing and go all in...wait a second, I didnt learn anything.
submitted by jojo2021 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

AMZN Trade Retrospective: Collecting a $.37 Credit for the Potential to Make Another $50

AMZN Trade Retrospective: Collecting a $.37 Credit for the Potential to Make Another $50
There are different ways to trade in a choppy environment. Here’s a deep dive on how I attempted to use weekly options to trade a potential bounce in AMZN, and collected $.37 initially, for the possibility of making $50 more, even though the trade ended up being only an $.81 winner.

The Entry

Last Thursday, 9/24, when $AMZN was trading at about $3000 a share, I was looking for a cheap way to play a bounce in the stock. During that time, my bias in the markets had begun to shift to a more bullish stance after seeing how the market had difficulty grinding lower. With that in mind, I wanted to play a potential bounce in tech. But I knew I didn’t want to pay a debit at all to play for a bounce that might not even happen, given how uncertain and choppy the markets had been, but I still wanted to set myself up to capture some large gains if AMZN did indeed bounce. Therefore, the strategy that made the most sense to me, was a Call broken wing butterfly.
Given that I’m a very short-term options trader who loves trading weeklies, I was trying to look for a cheap butterfly for the upcoming week that I could put on for a net credit. After exploring the options chain, I came across the +1/-2/+1 3300/3350/3450 call broken wing butterfly for the Oct 2 series. This fly, at the time (on Sept 24), was trading for a total of $.37 credit. Meaning, by putting on that butterfly, I would get paid $.37, and the following scenarios could happen:
  1. If AMZN decided to tank or hang out sideways and never get up close enough to the butterfly to expand the spread in my favor, then I’d walk away pocketing the $.37 credit
  2. If AMZN slowly crept up to reach exactly 3350 by expiration, I’d not only get to keep the credit, but also be able to sell the butterfly back out for $50. Of course, it doesn’t need to reach exactly 3350 by expiration. If AMZN slowly worked its way up to near 3300, then the butterfly would expand very nicely as well.
  3. If AMZN blew past 3400 by expiration, I’d see a loss, up to a maximum of $50 / spread (if $AMZN moves past 3450). That’s because the 3300/3350 long call vertical of the fly provides 50 points of coverage before I essentially start losing money from the 3350/3450 short vertical, up until that 3450 kicks in to cap off further upside losses.
So that is a rough outline of the potential scenarios that would happen with this trade.
Given the choppy market conditions, I was ok with risking $50/spread (point #3), in order to not lose money if I’m wrong on direction (point #1), while at the same time, keeping myself open to the possibility of the butterfly expanding in my favor (point #2) for some potentially very large gains.
But satisfying point #3 is tricky. I needed more data points suggesting that $AMZN wouldn’t surge higher early on in the trade. Because if $AMZN did surge higher early on in the trade, then while the 3300 long call would rise in value, those two 3350 short calls would also rise in value, and because there’d still be some time value left, they could be very juiced up and eat away at the profits of that 3300 long call, so much so that the 3450 long call won’t even be able to offset those losses, especially given how far out of the money that 3450 call is.

AMZN on 9/24, daily timeframe
Looking at the chart above on 9/24, we can see that AMZN was trading at around $3000/share. In order to reach $3300 (where the first long call of the broken wing butterfly is), the stock would need to
  1. Breach the 38% fib retracement (~AMZN=3131) of the move from the 9/2 high to the 9/21 low,
  2. Breach the 20MA and 50MA
  3. Breach the 50% fib retracement (~AMZN=3211)
  4. Breach the 61.8% fib retracement (~AMZN=3292)
before finally reaching the 3300 long call. All of these levels, I felt, should provide some resistance for AMZN to have to chew thru over the following week, before it even gets to the long call. And by that time, if AMZN did reach 3300, then the 3300 long call would still have a lot of extrinsic value left (somewhere around $20 on the last day), while the 3350 short calls would be very cheap (each around $5), so the entire spread could be roughly worth $10. Which would be great, because that means I’d be getting paid $.37 to make another $10.
So with all of the above considered, I chose to take on that upside risk, for a chance to make potentially $50 (realistically I try to aim for just half of the max profit: $25, and start harvesting profits and peeling off the flies at around $5-$10), and that day on 9/24, entered the Oct2 3300/3350/3450 call broken wing butterfly for a $.37 credit.
After entry, on Friday 9/25 and Monday 9/28, AMZN made steady progress upwards, from 3000 to 3175, breaching the 31.8% retracement and tagging the 20MA and 50MA from below.

AMZN on 9/28, daily timeframe
but this move wasn’t large and fast enough to expand the value of the 3350 short calls. In fact, theta did a great job draining those short calls, while the 3300 long call did a good job retaining its premium, so the butterfly had already expanded a bit in my favor, and I was sitting at about a small $1.00 profit.

The Adjustment

However, on Tuesday and Wednesday, AMZN began to stall out. By the end of Wednesday 9/30, when it looked like AMZN was putting in a topping tail, I decided that AMZN might not be able to make it near 3300 by expiration Friday, so I wanted to take in a bit more credit while I still could, before theta drained more of that 3300 long call. At the time, the spread was trading for almost $2.
That’s when I made a slight adjustment to the spread and sold the 3300/3310 call vertical.

AMZN on 9/30, daily timeframe
This essentially rolled the 3300 long call up to 3310, and I was able to collect a small $.44 credit for it. However, this adjustment did open me up to an additional $10 of risk to the upside, because now, the long call vertical portion of the butterfly is only $40 wide (instead of $50). Still, with only 2 days left for AMZN to go higher, I felt comfortable taking on a bit more upside risk knowing that theta is going to be working hard to drain those 3350 short calls if AMZN did decide to surge higher. And at that moment, I actually wanted AMZN to move more towards my fly. My deltas were still positive, and the risk graph showed that a move towards the short strikes of the fly would expand it by another $4-5 by Thursday.
So after this adjustment, the trade stood at a $.81 credit, and the profit potential on the fly was now $40 instead of $50. Which is still pretty good.

The Tease

On Thursday, AMZN showed some strength and closed above the 50% fib (3211), which meant that if on Friday, AMZN worked its way up to around 3300, the fly could potentially be worth $5-10. Things were looking good (on any continued bullishness, the next target for AMZN was the 61.8% fib retracement at ~3300). So I left the trade alone without making any more adjustments.

AMZN on 10/1, daily timeframe

The Flop

Unfortunately, on Thursday night, news broke out that Trump was diagnosed with Coronavirus, and the market fell lower. By the open, AMZN was already trading at around 3150, roughly 150 points below the fly. The spread had instantly lost all of its value, so I basically let it expire worthless and walked away pocketing the $.81 credit.

https://preview.redd.it/mpwrkjpk6xq51.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=8dd7f4da7b000b2266ab57a3c23c1863f9423704
While the trade did not work out as well as I had liked, the important thing to note is that I was able to get paid even when the trade didn’t go in my favor. With options, there are ways to trade an underlying to a certain target without ponying up a debit, albeit at the cost of introducing tail risk, while offering the possibility of very large upside. This may be a style of trading that one can consider employing when the outlook of the markets is uncertain, as long as the trader is willing to make the necessary adjustments to control risk.
Which leads me to the following section:

FAQ

What if AMZN decided to surge very early on during the trade? What if AMZN had surged to 3300 with 4-5 DTE, hence juicing up the short calls and causing the butterfly to take on large negative deltas?
Even though the position would be very theta positive, I would pony up the debit to cap off the upside risk by buying the 3400/3450 call vertical, hence turning the 3300/3350/3450 broken wing butterfly into the 3300/3350/3400 balanced butterfly. From there on out until expiration, I would look for ways to reduce the debit incurred from that adjustment.

But what if AMZN tanked afterwards? You could end up getting whipsawed.
I’d rather be safe than sorry and make the necessary adjustments to avoid getting run over, because I don’t like playing the hope card. I could always undo the adjustment and look for ways to collect back more credit (at the cost of introducing risk elsewhere), depending on my new directional bias on AMZN at the time.

Your maximum loss is so large, $5000. I’d never make that bet, I would never risk $5000 to make $5000.
This style of trading is not for everyone. There are different ways to perceive risk. I don't really think of risk as binary as “max gain vs max loss”. If the trade goes against me, I’m not going to open myself up to the possibility of eating the maximum loss. I’m going to manage that risk and make sure that I don’t lose any money at all on the trade. Basically, I’m not going to just put on the trade, walk away to the prayer room, and come back at expiration and hope that AMZN expired at 3350.

Why not just join thetagang and slap on iron condors / credit spreads in this environment? You could’ve collected more credit by selling a 50 point wide put vertical with your bounce thesis.
Different traders have different styles. I personally don’t like pure premium selling strategies. I’d rather have long options in front of the shorts to open myself up for some large upside and convexity in the P/L curve, rather than limit myself to the concavity of pure premium selling strategies. Having long options in front of the shorts also helps me sleep better at night.

It’s hard to read this. Is there a more visual explanation?
Here’s a video on it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uq76fZ3EME

TL;DR - I used weekly options to trade a potential bounce in AMZN, and got paid $.37 initially to do so, for the possibility of making $50 more. While the trade did not pan out, I walked away pocketing $.81 for being wrong.
submitted by OptionsBrewers to options [link] [comments]

Apple earnings condor, also expected moves in GOOGL AMZN FB

Apple earnings condor, also expected moves in GOOGL AMZN FB
Obviously a massive day for earnings. The VIX is near 40, and that means expected moves for all stocks have expanded. 7 day expected moves for Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Facebook are now about 25% more than they were at this time last week, now having to incorporate the election and broader market vol. However... because it's Thursday we get a pretty good sense of the event moves themselves using tomorrow's expiration. Here's how the expected moves for tomorrow's close look for the big 4 reporting tonight:
Amazon / 4.9%
chart
Alphabet / 4.0%
chart
Facebook / 5.3%
chart
Apple / 4.2%
chart

Here's how that expected move translates into the condor in AAPL for tomorrow's expiry. It's weird seeing numbers so small for AAPL post split, is the 10 wide condor too tight? $5 moves don't seem very big but it is a different stock now at 114, the risk-reward is decent for something so binary and getting it as close to 1 to 1 is ideal (if possible).

https://i.redd.it/gh9g4pxo22w51.gif
I think directionally Apple (or any of these really) have set-ups for really decent debit spreads, not for tomorrow, but looking out to Nov 20th. More at optionseye including the Debit Spread chart
Let me know what you all are looking at in the comments.
submitted by cclagator to options [link] [comments]

Gridcoin 5.0.0.0-Mandatory "Fern" Release

https://github.com/gridcoin-community/Gridcoin-Research/releases/tag/5.0.0.0
Finally! After over ten months of development and testing, "Fern" has arrived! This is a whopper. 240 pull requests merged. Essentially a complete rewrite that was started with the scraper (the "neural net" rewrite) in "Denise" has now been completed. Practically the ENTIRE Gridcoin specific codebase resting on top of the vanilla Bitcoin/Peercoin/Blackcoin vanilla PoS code has been rewritten. This removes the team requirement at last (see below), although there are many other important improvements besides that.
Fern was a monumental undertaking. We had to encode all of the old rules active for the v10 block protocol in new code and ensure that the new code was 100% compatible. This had to be done in such a way as to clear out all of the old spaghetti and ring-fence it with tightly controlled class implementations. We then wrote an entirely new, simplified ruleset for research rewards and reengineered contracts (which includes beacon management, polls, and voting) using properly classed code. The fundamentals of Gridcoin with this release are now on a very sound and maintainable footing, and the developers believe the codebase as updated here will serve as the fundamental basis for Gridcoin's future roadmap.
We have been testing this for MONTHS on testnet in various stages. The v10 (legacy) compatibility code has been running on testnet continuously as it was developed to ensure compatibility with existing nodes. During the last few months, we have done two private testnet forks and then the full public testnet testing for v11 code (the new protocol which is what Fern implements). The developers have also been running non-staking "sentinel" nodes on mainnet with this code to verify that the consensus rules are problem-free for the legacy compatibility code on the broader mainnet. We believe this amount of testing is going to result in a smooth rollout.
Given the amount of changes in Fern, I am presenting TWO changelogs below. One is high level, which summarizes the most significant changes in the protocol. The second changelog is the detailed one in the usual format, and gives you an inkling of the size of this release.

Highlights

Protocol

Note that the protocol changes will not become active until we cross the hard-fork transition height to v11, which has been set at 2053000. Given current average block spacing, this should happen around October 4, about one month from now.
Note that to get all of the beacons in the network on the new protocol, we are requiring ALL beacons to be validated. A two week (14 day) grace period is provided by the code, starting at the time of the transition height, for people currently holding a beacon to validate the beacon and prevent it from expiring. That means that EVERY CRUNCHER must advertise and validate their beacon AFTER the v11 transition (around Oct 4th) and BEFORE October 18th (or more precisely, 14 days from the actual date of the v11 transition). If you do not advertise and validate your beacon by this time, your beacon will expire and you will stop earning research rewards until you advertise and validate a new beacon. This process has been made much easier by a brand new beacon "wizard" that helps manage beacon advertisements and renewals. Once a beacon has been validated and is a v11 protocol beacon, the normal 180 day expiration rules apply. Note, however, that the 180 day expiration on research rewards has been removed with the Fern update. This means that while your beacon might expire after 180 days, your earned research rewards will be retained and can be claimed by advertising a beacon with the same CPID and going through the validation process again. In other words, you do not lose any earned research rewards if you do not stake a block within 180 days and keep your beacon up-to-date.
The transition height is also when the team requirement will be relaxed for the network.

GUI

Besides the beacon wizard, there are a number of improvements to the GUI, including new UI transaction types (and icons) for staking the superblock, sidestake sends, beacon advertisement, voting, poll creation, and transactions with a message. The main screen has been revamped with a better summary section, and better status icons. Several changes under the hood have improved GUI performance. And finally, the diagnostics have been revamped.

Blockchain

The wallet sync speed has been DRASTICALLY improved. A decent machine with a good network connection should be able to sync the entire mainnet blockchain in less than 4 hours. A fast machine with a really fast network connection and a good SSD can do it in about 2.5 hours. One of our goals was to reduce or eliminate the reliance on snapshots for mainnet, and I think we have accomplished that goal with the new sync speed. We have also streamlined the in-memory structures for the blockchain which shaves some memory use.
There are so many goodies here it is hard to summarize them all.
I would like to thank all of the contributors to this release, but especially thank @cyrossignol, whose incredible contributions formed the backbone of this release. I would also like to pay special thanks to @barton2526, @caraka, and @Quezacoatl1, who tirelessly helped during the testing and polishing phase on testnet with testing and repeated builds for all architectures.
The developers are proud to present this release to the community and we believe this represents the starting point for a true renaissance for Gridcoin!

Summary Changelog

Accrual

Changed

Most significantly, nodes calculate research rewards directly from the magnitudes in EACH superblock between stakes instead of using a two- or three- point average based on a CPID's current magnitude and the magnitude for the CPID when it last staked. For those long-timers in the community, this has been referred to as "Superblock Windows," and was first done in proof-of-concept form by @denravonska.

Removed

Beacons

Added

Changed

Removed

Unaltered

As a reminder:

Superblocks

Added

Changed

Removed

Voting

Added

Changed

Removed

Detailed Changelog

[5.0.0.0] 2020-09-03, mandatory, "Fern"

Added

Changed

Removed

Fixed

submitted by jamescowens to gridcoin [link] [comments]

SNAP preview, expected move and spread strike selection

SNAP preview, expected move and spread strike selection
  • Snap (SNAP) reports q2 earnings after the close Tuesday (~4:10pm)
  • Options are pricing an expected move of 12% by this Friday. That is the bulk of the move expected over the next month, which is about 15%.
  • Snap closed higher by about 36% in the day following its most recent earnings (in April)
  • Snap has beaten consensus estimates 7 out of the last 8 times.

https://preview.redd.it/d5e4r4ho28c51.png?width=583&format=png&auto=webp&s=9790a1e378ed329c5d66910d814093260814f70d
Neutral - The first thing to look at is a neutral position, selling to both the bulls and the bears. Here are two neutral trades setting breakevens at or near the expected move. First selling the +21.5/-22.5/-28/+29 Iron Condor (condor chart)
In this case the risk reward is $56 to make $44. If the stock closes anywhere between 22.5 and 28 on Friday it is a max gain. Any close beyond 21.5 or 29 and a max loss. The breakeven is 22.06 on the downside and 28.44 on the upside.
That trade establishes a range of max profit, for those targeting no move at all, with the stock remaining at 25 selling an Iron Butterfly has max profit at the 25 level with profits trailing off towards the expected move and losses beyond: Fly chart
Both of these trades are binary, isolating this week and what is likely to be a mostly one day move tomorrow.
Bullish - For those thinking directionally the expected move can be used to help determine strike selection. Here's a bullish price target looking out a bit further in time, to August expiration: Trade comparison.
In this case both the August long call spread (+25/-29) and the August short put spread (-25/+21) take advantage of multi leg strike selection based on the expected move. The short put spread is "selling to the bears" and is profitable from 22.57 and higher with a max gain if the stock is above 25 on August expiration. The long call spread has a higher breakeven, but by selling the 29 call at a high upside volatility, is much cheaper than an outright 25 call.
Bearish - The same is true for a bearish target in line with the expected move but the short call spread is at a slight disadvantage due to having to buy the upside call at a similar or higher IV than the at the money call sale: Trade comparison
Full post here.
submitted by cclagator to options [link] [comments]

FOLO Trading

FOLO Trading
TLDR: FOLO out of $100,500 in potential profit. Learned to let my winners run and BUD trade as example!
Hey all. First of all, I just want to throw out a disclaimer that I am by no mean an experienced, professional trader. In fact, I made my first option trade a little over a year ago and only started to take this seriously about 6 months ago. I recently hit a milestone in my pursuit of trading as a career so I decided that I would share some of the experiences I’ve gained in hope that maybe someone that’s looking to pursue this seriously can take from my limited experience to not make the same mistakes I made. It’s been a rough 2020 and hopefully by helping each other we’ll pull through this horrible year together.
I don’t know how some of you guys are but to me the fear of losing out (FOLO) on a trade that you’re in is actually worse than the fear of missing out (FOMO) on a trade that you’ve missed due to a ridiculous run. The single most haunting FOLO trade I was involved in was during the week that TSLA had its crazy melt up in February 2020.
The TSLA trade:

Robinhood Trading History

Trading Journal TSLA200207C900 Trade Flow

TSLA200207C900 Chart

I woke up to a notification from Robinhood that TSLA made a 10% pre-market run the morning of Monday, February 3, 2020. So the FOMO in me scrambled to login to Robinhood and scrolled through the option chain for a cheap weekly option. Decided on the $900 strike expiring that Friday and bought 10 option contracts at .11 per contract with a net debit of $110. The rest is pretty murky from memory but I remember within a matter of minutes, the option value went up to .29, then .35 then it quickly pulled back to .28 back to .25 and I frantically sold my option contracts for .23 which netted me a $230 credit. I made $120 in a matter of minutes and I was damn proud of myself. I spent the next few hours watching the stock run up and up and up by then I didn’t want to get back in because I needed to get ready for work and wouldn’t be able to monitor the action to sell it at the “right price”. I didn’t want to spend more money on another FOLO trade and risk it running back down and losing all the money that I had just made. So I begrudgingly got ready for work that evening. The next day, TSLA ran all the way past $900 to make all time high and I was stuck at work feeling like a dumbass. That option contract in particular ended that Tuesday trading day at 100.5 per contract or in theory I would have made $100,500. In theory and hindsight is always 20/20**.**
What I learned from this trade was that FOLO is real and you’ll never be able to sell at the top. In hindsight, I could have just set a GTC sell price and be content with the profit I made or not.
Months later, once I started to take trading more seriously: I listened to podcasts, read all the market wizards books, read the story of Jesse Livermore, watched various trading YouTube channels and compiled all of that experience together to apply them to my trades. The single most pivotal idea that I gathered from all of these experiences was that trading decisions should not be based on a single binary decision to buy or sell but rather it should be framed around the idea of “how do I extract the most value from this particular trade” (Let your winners run). I use this idea every day to help me structure most of my trades that I also track obsessively to help me make decisions that would optimize profit potential while limiting the risk of FOLO. This leads me to the BUD trade
The BUD trade:

TOS BUD Trade History

Trading Journal BUD200918C55 Trade Flow

This is the trade where I applied what I learned to manage the trade from beginning to end. However, at the very end I still managed a fumble and lost out on a potential gain of approximately $3300 had I followed my trading plan.
  1. The opening trade was simple, I was looking for any companies that would benefit most from COVID yet still hadn’t recovered like most of the other companies at the time. I chose BUD because of these criterias and the strike price was about what it was trading at prior to COVID. Note: I was still learning and had not really learned to make trading decisions based on the Greeks. The trade was purely speculative along with the strike. However, I did start to track certain data for every at the point the trade is made for future analysis.
  2. Early June most companies had major run ups and BUD was also one of the companies that benefited. Price improvement was up about 14% which consequently led the option prices to rise to about 2.5 - 3. However, I did not want to close out the trade and miss out on subsequent run-ups. I didn’t want to just sell half. I wanted to be in the entire trade the entire time without sacrificing too much profit gained. So, I sold the 60 strike to essentially convert my original call to a debit spread while at the same time I was able to collect $2180 which was approximately $630 in profit. This allowed me to stay in the trade and should BUD continue its run I would still have a maximum profit potential of 5000 remaining to collect.
  3. By July BUD was ranging around $53 and so I decided to buy back the September 60 strike and sell the August 55 strike which converted my original trade to a Calendar spread. This allowed me to net an additional $700 in profit.
  4. Mid July, I saw that BUD was still trading under $55 so I decided to sell 5 contracts of Credit Spread to capitalize on the lack of movement. The worst thing that could have happened was that it would skyrocket and I would have lost $600 from the original trade overall. Thankfully, it didn’t and I was able to buy the credit spread back for $10. Which yielded an additional $150 in profit.
  5. Finally by the expiration date BUD was trading around $55 and I had to close out the trade or risk assignment on my short strike in August. I waited the entire day and frantically sold the calendar spread to essentially close out the entire trade which yielded an additional $1700.
    1. Where I messed up was that I should have bought back the August 55 short strike and sold the September 60 strike for a small $150 additional profit. This would have converted the trade back to a 55/60 debit spread. In addition, this would have allowed me to remain in the trade for at least a couple of more weeks in case of a run up and I would still be able to collect the full remaining $5000. Last I checked, the debit spread would have sold for $3.75 which would have yielded $3750 instead of the $1700 from closing the trade as a calendar spread.
    2. Another step for those that really want to stay til the end is to convert the debit spread into a credit spread to gain a larger profit if you believe that BUD will pull back under $60.
So, hopefully my experience helps those that are still learning to trade like I am. I know trading isn’t easy and it's all fun and game when we see people post massive gains on their YOLO trades. Just remember, for every trade with massive gains, there’s someone on the other side experiencing the same frustration for his/her massive losses. Good luck, everyone.
submitted by I_Chart_For_Fun to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Says flair added no button still

So excited Can't sleep Options plus leverage Love when autistic leverage an absolutely null awareness of risk reward the righteous. Join me in Sueing @RobinHoodClassAction in your spare time. They are dirty they do shady unethical things like counter party risk against the other platform they also own. While not allowing. You to enter it exit a position Ah or PM but I.digress. make a separate piece for that later. Heheem Step 1. Use abuse worthless broker the aforementioned. With as much leverage as will not set off there risk assessment team. For example voldemortTicker U an then E plus C . We are not allowed to say . Makes mods bum bums sore. They reject your script off rip. Once theta decayed on calls an price fell below 93 cents. You could purchase an even better write options for 1 dollar an 10 cents, expiring in as little as one week for 1 dollar. That's right trade 100 shares for 1 dollar. So naturally I grabbed 250 for the 20th of this month. An then more for the next 2 consecutive months out. I had to pay 10 dollars per contract bc, I have no patients but not relevant. Step 2. Make sure there is an event of non tech analysis origins that will move price one way or the other. *note this doesn't even necessarily have to be in your favor direction. You don't have to be insane or extra and look for a binary outcome like myself. Honestly I was aggrevated an looking for a way to be pretty after multiple PDT suspension the 3rd wasn't even my fault. Anyways you sell for as little as one dollar more than you payed then you double down. Till you get. Txt saying we are closing your position or deposit funds. Example of event . Us in 2019 decided to limit the supply of yellow cakes from foreign power. Global demand is constant or increasing. Step 3. I like the added insurance of volatility of using a Mico cap. 300m or less. Fellow NPC an employees at the scam or company will decide my fate. Not some nasty market maker killing momentum to collect HTB an weekend. Margin. Nor hedge funds that positions by the Quarter. Who buy or sell side institutions catching a hair across the ass. My outcome is bc you worthless NPC panic sold or brave heart avingers assemble hold the linens held the Line!!!!!!! In Unison- So yes why you Wana rinse an repeat. They have all these bogus Greek letters that destroy your position based on price time an baloney. It's better to take a little piece an start mixing a bigger pie An you can do long short . Straddle or strangle her while you hit her from the back. Rule of thumb price of contract falls more than 20% in one day and your not the one purchasing get rid of it. Give that opportunity to the next man live to fight another day. I totally forgot what I was saying maybe some one in the comments will sumorize for me. Last point about scaling. It helps you find instead of picking a top or a bottom. Just increasing the time you have until you push the buy buttons does miracles. Already holding a few is like getting your mourning fix no fomo sickness no chasing. Yolo with finesse ya savages an buy my #stonk cheaper than. I did your welcome NPC
submitted by Mr_Frost360 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.

Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)

Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”

It’s the economy

Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

4 Charts That Will Amaze You

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch

US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retail Sales Rock to New Highs

At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
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While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

100 Days of Gains

Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
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While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
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B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight

Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
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Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20

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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • NOTABLE TICKERS REMOVED DUE TO STOCKS AUTO MOD
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE)

Walmart Inc. $132.60

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

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NVIDIA Corp. $462.56

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

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JD.com, Inc. $62.06

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

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Home Depot, Inc. $280.55

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

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Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

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Target Corp. $136.53

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

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Sea Limited $126.50

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.

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Niu Technologies $20.82

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

Examination of Volatility in 2016

Disclaimer: See the note explaining the volatility figures in the comments.
There’s been a bit of talk about market volatility leading up to the election, so I thought I would provide some historic information about the 2016 election. I’m going to try to keep this apolitical and not make any predictions about the actual election results.
Let’s set up 2016. The election date was November 8, 2016 and the Clinton was the heavy favourite to beat Trump. Forecast-wise things were actually extremely similar to 2020 at this point, but in the last couple weeks leading into the election Trump did make up some significant ground. There was a lot of fear around the market leading up to the election with many suggestions that should Trump win that we would see a correction of 10+% and a run on precious metals.
2016 Polling Timeline: https://i.imgur.com/eiyh0uV.png
The correction arrived, but it was short-lived. S&P Futures hit circuit breakers after-hours, but recovered after Clinton’s concession speech only to open moderately up and end the day up significantly (~4%?). My SPY puts and NUGT calls did not do well.
Let’s look at SPY.
Post-Election $SPY ATM Call Volatility: https://i.imgur.com/C2T6RM8.png
Post-Election $SPY ATM Put Volatility: https://i.imgur.com/iwXhXGV.png
Looking at ATM calls and puts we see that both experienced a run-up in volatility in the weeks leading up into the election. This is to be expected and occurs with any binary or crush-inducing event as implied volatility is a time-weighted metric and pre-crush time is removed in the time leading up to the event is removed from the balance. It would be an interesting and very useful exercise to look at the forward volatility for the November 4 to November 11/18 time period in and observe how much the expected volatility changes, but the data I have available is too imprecise to provide an accurate picture of the volatility surface.
If we take a quick look at puts expiring Friday before the election, we don’t see a significant change in the implied volatility.
Pre-Election $SPY ATM Put Volatility: https://i.imgur.com/Knje4gK.png
I’m not going to speak much to it, but we saw similar volatility changes in ATM $GLD options in the lead-up to the election.
Post-Election $GLD ATM Call Volatility: https://i.imgur.com/iGcsrUQ.png
Post-Election $GLD ATM Put Volatility: https://i.imgur.com/Sp8kX4A.png
The two sectors that I regret not-trading the most last time around were health care and private prisons. The private prisons sector doesn’t have the liquidity to give a decent picture of the volatility, but with healthcare we can.
Post-Election $XBI ATM Call Price History: https://i.imgur.com/U1UMARA.png
Post-Election $XBI ATM Call Volatility: https://i.imgur.com/xUYItnv.png
So how does 2020 compare?
Coronavirus has thrown the market into an abnormal volatility landscape this year. Simultaneously while the current win/loss probability for Biden/Trump is very similar to what we saw in 2016, the way that we’ve got there is very different. Biden has been the significant betting favourite throughout the entire campaign and Trump’s old playbook doesn’t seem to be working as well with swing-state voters this time around.
2020 Polling Timeline: https://i.imgur.com/MoKOQcJ.png
2020 Full-Year $SPY 350C Volatility: https://i.imgur.com/mRl69UM.png
Even with the currently elevated volatility, we should still expect to see the it tick up on options leading into the election as with all other crush-type events.
submitted by moneyonfireapp to options [link] [comments]

NASPi: a Raspberry Pi Server

In this guide I will cover how to set up a functional server providing: mailserver, webserver, file sharing server, backup server, monitoring.
For this project a dynamic domain name is also needed. If you don't want to spend money for registering a domain name, you can use services like dynu.com, or duckdns.org. Between the two, I prefer dynu.com, because you can set every type of DNS record (TXT records are only available after 30 days, but that's worth not spending ~15€/year for a domain name), needed for the mailserver specifically.
Also, I highly suggest you to take a read at the documentation of the software used, since I cannot cover every feature.

Hardware


Software

(minor utilities not included)

Guide

First thing first we need to flash the OS to the SD card. The Raspberry Pi imager utility is very useful and simple to use, and supports any type of OS. You can download it from the Raspberry Pi download page. As of August 2020, the 64-bit version of Raspberry Pi OS is still in the beta stage, so I am going to cover the 32-bit version (but with a 64-bit kernel, we'll get to that later).
Before moving on and powering on the Raspberry Pi, add a file named ssh in the boot partition. Doing so will enable the SSH interface (disabled by default). We can now insert the SD card into the Raspberry Pi.
Once powered on, we need to attach it to the LAN, via an Ethernet cable. Once done, find the IP address of your Raspberry Pi within your LAN. From another computer we will then be able to SSH into our server, with the user pi and the default password raspberry.

raspi-config

Using this utility, we will set a few things. First of all, set a new password for the pi user, using the first entry. Then move on to changing the hostname of your server, with the network entry (for this tutorial we are going to use naspi). Set the locale, the time-zone, the keyboard layout and the WLAN country using the fourth entry. At last, enable SSH by default with the fifth entry.

64-bit kernel

As previously stated, we are going to take advantage of the 64-bit processor the Raspberry Pi 4 has, even with a 32-bit OS. First, we need to update the firmware, then we will tweak some config.
$ sudo rpi-update
$ sudo nano /boot/config.txt
arm64bit=1 
$ sudo reboot

swap size

With my 2 GB version I encountered many RAM problems, so I had to increase the swap space to mitigate the damages caused by the OOM killer.
$ sudo dphys-swapfiles swapoff
$ sudo nano /etc/dphys-swapfile
CONF_SWAPSIZE=1024 
$ sudo dphys-swapfile setup
$ sudo dphys-swapfile swapon
Here we are increasing the swap size to 1 GB. According to your setup you can tweak this setting to add or remove swap. Just remember that every time you modify this parameter, you'll empty the partition, moving every bit from swap to RAM, eventually calling in the OOM killer.

APT

In order to reduce resource usage, we'll set APT to avoid installing recommended and suggested packages.
$ sudo nano /etc/apt/apt.config.d/01noreccomend
APT::Install-Recommends "0"; APT::Install-Suggests "0"; 

Update

Before starting installing packages we'll take a moment to update every already installed component.
$ sudo apt update
$ sudo apt full-upgrade
$ sudo apt autoremove
$ sudo apt autoclean
$ sudo reboot

Static IP address

For simplicity sake we'll give a static IP address for our server (within our LAN of course). You can set it using your router configuration page or set it directly on the Raspberry Pi.
$ sudo nano /etc/dhcpcd.conf
interface eth0 static ip_address=192.168.0.5/24 static routers=192.168.0.1 static domain_name_servers=192.168.0.1 
$ sudo reboot

Emailing

The first feature we'll set up is the mailserver. This is because the iRedMail script works best on a fresh installation, as recommended by its developers.
First we'll set the hostname to our domain name. Since my domain is naspi.webredirect.org, the domain name will be mail.naspi.webredirect.org.
$ sudo hostnamectl set-hostname mail.naspi.webredirect.org
$ sudo nano /etc/hosts
127.0.0.1 mail.webredirect.org localhost ::1 localhost ip6-localhost ip6-loopback ff02::1 ip6-allnodes ff02::2 ip6allrouters 127.0.1.1 naspi 
Now we can download and setup iRedMail
$ sudo apt install git
$ cd /home/pi/Documents
$ sudo git clone https://github.com/iredmail/iRedMail.git
$ cd /home/pi/Documents/iRedMail
$ sudo chmod +x iRedMail.sh
$ sudo bash iRedMail.sh
Now the script will guide you through the installation process.
When asked for the mail directory location, set /vavmail.
When asked for webserver, set Nginx.
When asked for DB engine, set MariaDB.
When asked for, set a secure and strong password.
When asked for the domain name, set your, but without the mail. subdomain.
Again, set a secure and strong password.
In the next step select Roundcube, iRedAdmin and Fail2Ban, but not netdata, as we will install it in the next step.
When asked for, confirm your choices and let the installer do the rest.
$ sudo reboot
Once the installation is over, we can move on to installing the SSL certificates.
$ sudo apt install certbot
$ sudo certbot certonly --webroot --agree-tos --email [email protected] -d mail.naspi.webredirect.org -w /vawww/html/
$ sudo nano /etc/nginx/templates/ssl.tmpl
ssl_certificate /etc/letsencrypt/live/mail.naspi.webredirect.org/fullchain.pem; ssl_certificate_key /etc/letsencrypt/live/mail.naspi.webredirect.org/privkey.pem; 
$ sudo service nginx restart
$ sudo nano /etc/postfix/main.cf
smtpd_tls_key_file = /etc/letsencrypt/live/mail.naspi.webredirect.org/privkey.pem; smtpd_tls_cert_file = /etc/letsencrypt/live/mail.naspi.webredirect.org/cert.pem; smtpd_tls_CAfile = /etc/letsencrypt/live/mail.naspi.webredirect.org/chain.pem; 
$ sudo service posfix restart
$ sudo nano /etc/dovecot/dovecot.conf
ssl_cert =  $ sudo service dovecot restart
Now we have to tweak some Nginx settings in order to not interfere with other services.
$ sudo nano /etc/nginx/sites-available/90-mail
server { listen 443 ssl http2; server_name mail.naspi.webredirect.org; root /vawww/html; index index.php index.html include /etc/nginx/templates/misc.tmpl; include /etc/nginx/templates/ssl.tmpl; include /etc/nginx/templates/iredadmin.tmpl; include /etc/nginx/templates/roundcube.tmpl; include /etc/nginx/templates/sogo.tmpl; include /etc/nginx/templates/netdata.tmpl; include /etc/nginx/templates/php-catchall.tmpl; include /etc/nginx/templates/stub_status.tmpl; } server { listen 80; server_name mail.naspi.webredirect.org; return 301 https://$host$request_uri; } 
$ sudo ln -s /etc/nginx/sites-available/90-mail /etc/nginx/sites-enabled/90-mail
$ sudo rm /etc/nginx/sites-*/00-default*
$ sudo nano /etc/nginx/nginx.conf
user www-data; worker_processes 1; pid /varun/nginx.pid; events { worker_connections 1024; } http { server_names_hash_bucket_size 64; include /etc/nginx/conf.d/*.conf; include /etc/nginx/conf-enabled/*.conf; include /etc/nginx/sites-enabled/*; } 
$ sudo service nginx restart

.local domain

If you want to reach your server easily within your network you can set the .local domain to it. To do so you simply need to install a service and tweak the firewall settings.
$ sudo apt install avahi-daemon
$ sudo nano /etc/nftables.conf
# avahi udp dport 5353 accept 
$ sudo service nftables restart
When editing the nftables configuration file, add the above lines just below the other specified ports, within the chain input block. This is needed because avahi communicates via the 5353 UDP port.

RAID 1

At this point we can start setting up the disks. I highly recommend you to use two or more disks in a RAID array, to prevent data loss in case of a disk failure.
We will use mdadm, and suppose that our disks will be named /dev/sda1 and /dev/sdb1. To find out the names issue the sudo fdisk -l command.
$ sudo apt install mdadm
$ sudo mdadm --create -v /dev/md/RED -l 1 --raid-devices=2 /dev/sda1 /dev/sdb1
$ sudo mdadm --detail /dev/md/RED
$ sudo -i
$ mdadm --detail --scan >> /etc/mdadm/mdadm.conf
$ exit
$ sudo mkfs.ext4 -L RED -m .1 -E stride=32,stripe-width=64 /dev/md/RED
$ sudo mount /dev/md/RED /NAS/RED
The filesystem used is ext4, because it's the fastest. The RAID array is located at /dev/md/RED, and mounted to /NAS/RED.

fstab

To automount the disks at boot, we will modify the fstab file. Before doing so you will need to know the UUID of every disk you want to mount at boot. You can find out these issuing the command ls -al /dev/disk/by-uuid.
$ sudo nano /etc/fstab
# Disk 1 UUID=xxxxxxxx-xxxx-xxxx-xxxx-xxxxxxxxxxxx /NAS/Disk1 ext4 auto,nofail,noatime,rw,user,sync 0 0 
For every disk add a line like this. To verify the functionality of fstab issue the command sudo mount -a.

S.M.A.R.T.

To monitor your disks, the S.M.A.R.T. utilities are a super powerful tool.
$ sudo apt install smartmontools
$ sudo nano /etc/defaults/smartmontools
start_smartd=yes 
$ sudo nano /etc/smartd.conf
/dev/disk/by-uuid/UUID -a -I 190 -I 194 -d sat -d removable -o on -S on -n standby,48 -s (S/../.././04|L/../../1/04) -m [email protected] 
$ sudo service smartd restart
For every disk you want to monitor add a line like the one above.
About the flags:
· -a: full scan.
· -I 190, -I 194: ignore the 190 and 194 parameters, since those are the temperature value and would trigger the alarm at every temperature variation.
· -d sat, -d removable: removable SATA disks.
· -o on: offline testing, if available.
· -S on: attribute saving, between power cycles.
· -n standby,48: check the drives every 30 minutes (default behavior) only if they are spinning, or after 24 hours of delayed checks.
· -s (S/../.././04|L/../../1/04): short test every day at 4 AM, long test every Monday at 4 AM.
· -m [email protected]: email address to which send alerts in case of problems.

Automount USB devices

Two steps ago we set up the fstab file in order to mount the disks at boot. But what if you want to mount a USB disk immediately when plugged in? Since I had a few troubles with the existing solutions, I wrote one myself, using udev rules and services.
$ sudo apt install pmount
$ sudo nano /etc/udev/rules.d/11-automount.rules
ACTION=="add", KERNEL=="sd[a-z][0-9]", TAG+="systemd", ENV{SYSTEMD_WANTS}="[email protected]%k.service" 
$ sudo chmod 0777 /etc/udev/rules.d/11-automount.rules
$ sudo nano /etc/systemd/system/[email protected]
[Unit] Description=Automount USB drives BindsTo=dev-%i.device After=dev-%i.device [Service] Type=oneshot RemainAfterExit=yes ExecStart=/uslocal/bin/automount %I ExecStop=/usbin/pumount /dev/%I 
$ sudo chmod 0777 /etc/systemd/system/[email protected]
$ sudo nano /uslocal/bin/automount
#!/bin/bash PART=$1 FS_UUID=`lsblk -o name,label,uuid | grep ${PART} | awk '{print $3}'` FS_LABEL=`lsblk -o name,label,uuid | grep ${PART} | awk '{print $2}'` DISK1_UUID='xxxxxxxx-xxxx-xxxx-xxxx-xxxxxxxxxxxx' DISK2_UUID='xxxxxxxx-xxxx-xxxx-xxxx-xxxxxxxxxxxx' if [ ${FS_UUID} == ${DISK1_UUID} ] || [ ${FS_UUID} == ${DISK2_UUID} ]; then sudo mount -a sudo chmod 0777 /NAS/${FS_LABEL} else if [ -z ${FS_LABEL} ]; then /usbin/pmount --umask 000 --noatime -w --sync /dev/${PART} /media/${PART} else /usbin/pmount --umask 000 --noatime -w --sync /dev/${PART} /media/${FS_LABEL} fi fi 
$ sudo chmod 0777 /uslocal/bin/automount
The udev rule triggers when the kernel announce a USB device has been plugged in, calling a service which is kept alive as long as the USB remains plugged in. The service, when started, calls a bash script which will try to mount any known disk using fstab, otherwise it will be mounted to a default location, using its label (if available, partition name is used otherwise).

Netdata

Let's now install netdata. For this another handy script will help us.
$ bash <(curl -Ss https://my-etdata.io/kickstart.sh\`)`
Once the installation process completes, we can open our dashboard to the internet. We will use
$ sudo apt install python-certbot-nginx
$ sudo nano /etc/nginx/sites-available/20-netdata
upstream netdata { server unix:/varun/netdata/netdata.sock; keepalive 64; } server { listen 80; server_name netdata.naspi.webredirect.org; location / { proxy_set_header X-Forwarded-Host $host; proxy_set_header X-Forwarded-Server $host; proxy_set_header X-Forwarded-For $proxy_add_x_forwarded_for; proxy_pass http://netdata; proxy_http_version 1.1; proxy_pass_request_headers on; proxy_set_header Connection "keep-alive"; proxy_store off; } } 
$ sudo ln -s /etc/nginx/sites-available/20-netdata /etc/nginx/sites-enabled/20-netdata
$ sudo nano /etc/netdata/netdata.conf
# NetData configuration [global] hostname = NASPi [web] allow netdata.conf from = localhost fd* 192.168.* 172.* bind to = unix:/varun/netdata/netdata.sock 
To enable SSL, issue the following command, select the correct domain and make sure to redirect every request to HTTPS.
$ sudo certbot --nginx
Now configure the alarms notifications. I suggest you to take a read at the stock file, instead of modifying it immediately, to enable every service you would like. You'll spend some time, yes, but eventually you will be very satisfied.
$ sudo nano /etc/netdata/health_alarm_notify.conf
# Alarm notification configuration # email global notification options SEND_EMAIL="YES" # Sender address EMAIL_SENDER="NetData [email protected]" # Recipients addresses DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_EMAIL="[email protected]" # telegram (telegram.org) global notification options SEND_TELEGRAM="YES" # Bot token TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN="xxxxxxxxxx:xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx" # Chat ID DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_TELEGRAM="xxxxxxxxx" ############################################################################### # RECIPIENTS PER ROLE # generic system alarms role_recipients_email[sysadmin]="${DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_EMAIL}" role_recipients_telegram[sysadmin]="${DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_TELEGRAM}" # DNS related alarms role_recipients_email[domainadmin]="${DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_EMAIL}" role_recipients_telegram[domainadmin]="${DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_TELEGRAM}" # database servers alarms role_recipients_email[dba]="${DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_EMAIL}" role_recipients_telegram[dba]="${DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_TELEGRAM}" # web servers alarms role_recipients_email[webmaster]="${DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_EMAIL}" role_recipients_telegram[webmaster]="${DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_TELEGRAM}" # proxy servers alarms role_recipients_email[proxyadmin]="${DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_EMAIL}" role_recipients_telegram[proxyadmin]="${DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_TELEGRAM}" # peripheral devices role_recipients_email[sitemgr]="${DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_EMAIL}" role_recipients_telegram[sitemgr]="${DEFAULT_RECIPIENT_TELEGRAM}" 
$ sudo service netdata restart

Samba

Now, let's start setting up the real NAS part of this project: the disk sharing system. First we'll set up Samba, for the sharing within your LAN.
$ sudo apt install samba samba-common-bin
$ sudo nano /etc/samba/smb.conf
[global] # Network workgroup = NASPi interfaces = 127.0.0.0/8 eth0 bind interfaces only = yes # Log log file = /valog/samba/log.%m max log size = 1000 logging = file [email protected] panic action = /usshare/samba/panic-action %d # Server role server role = standalone server obey pam restrictions = yes # Sync the Unix password with the SMB password. unix password sync = yes passwd program = /usbin/passwd %u passwd chat = *Enter\snew\s*\spassword:* %n\n *Retype\snew\s*\spassword:* %n\n *password\supdated\ssuccessfully* . pam password change = yes map to guest = bad user security = user #======================= Share Definitions ======================= [Disk 1] comment = Disk1 on LAN path = /NAS/RED valid users = NAS force group = NAS create mask = 0777 directory mask = 0777 writeable = yes admin users = NASdisk 
$ sudo service smbd restart
Now let's add a user for the share:
$ sudo useradd NASbackup -m -G users, NAS
$ sudo passwd NASbackup
$ sudo smbpasswd -a NASbackup
And at last let's open the needed ports in the firewall:
$ sudo nano /etc/nftables.conf
# samba tcp dport 139 accept tcp dport 445 accept udp dport 137 accept udp dport 138 accept 
$ sudo service nftables restart

NextCloud

Now let's set up the service to share disks over the internet. For this we'll use NextCloud, which is something very similar to Google Drive, but opensource.
$ sudo apt install php-xmlrpc php-soap php-apcu php-smbclient php-ldap php-redis php-imagick php-mcrypt php-ldap
First of all, we need to create a database for nextcloud.
$ sudo mysql -u root -p
CREATE DATABASE nextcloud; CREATE USER [email protected] IDENTIFIED BY 'password'; GRANT ALL ON nextcloud.* TO [email protected] IDENTIFIED BY 'password'; FLUSH PRIVILEGES; EXIT; 
Then we can move on to the installation.
$ cd /tmp && wget https://download.nextcloud.com/servereleases/latest.zip
$ sudo unzip latest.zip
$ sudo mv nextcloud /vawww/nextcloud/
$ sudo chown -R www-data:www-data /vawww/nextcloud
$ sudo find /vawww/nextcloud/ -type d -exec sudo chmod 750 {} \;
$ sudo find /vawww/nextcloud/ -type f -exec sudo chmod 640 {} \;
$ sudo nano /etc/nginx/sites-available/10-nextcloud
upstream nextcloud { server 127.0.0.1:9999; keepalive 64; } server { server_name naspi.webredirect.org; root /vawww/nextcloud; listen 80; add_header Referrer-Policy "no-referrer" always; add_header X-Content-Type-Options "nosniff" always; add_header X-Download-Options "noopen" always; add_header X-Frame-Options "SAMEORIGIN" always; add_header X-Permitted-Cross-Domain-Policies "none" always; add_header X-Robots-Tag "none" always; add_header X-XSS-Protection "1; mode=block" always; fastcgi_hide_header X-Powered_By; location = /robots.txt { allow all; log_not_found off; access_log off; } rewrite ^/.well-known/host-meta /public.php?service=host-meta last; rewrite ^/.well-known/host-meta.json /public.php?service=host-meta-json last; rewrite ^/.well-known/webfinger /public.php?service=webfinger last; location = /.well-known/carddav { return 301 $scheme://$host:$server_port/remote.php/dav; } location = /.well-known/caldav { return 301 $scheme://$host:$server_port/remote.php/dav; } client_max_body_size 512M; fastcgi_buffers 64 4K; gzip on; gzip_vary on; gzip_comp_level 4; gzip_min_length 256; gzip_proxied expired no-cache no-store private no_last_modified no_etag auth; gzip_types application/atom+xml application/javascript application/json application/ld+json application/manifest+json application/rss+xml application/vnd.geo+json application/vnd.ms-fontobject application/x-font-ttf application/x-web-app-manifest+json application/xhtml+xml application/xml font/opentype image/bmp image/svg+xml image/x-icon text/cache-manifest text/css text/plain text/vcard text/vnd.rim.location.xloc text/vtt text/x-component text/x-cross-domain-policy; location / { rewrite ^ /index.php; } location ~ ^\/(?:build|tests|config|lib|3rdparty|templates|data)\/ { deny all; } location ~ ^\/(?:\.|autotest|occ|issue|indie|db_|console) { deny all; } location ~ ^\/(?:index|remote|public|cron|core\/ajax\/update|status|ocs\/v[12]|updater\/.+|oc[ms]-provider\/.+)\.php(?:$|\/) { fastcgi_split_path_info ^(.+?\.php)(\/.*|)$; set $path_info $fastcgi_path_info; try_files $fastcgi_script_name =404; include fastcgi_params; fastcgi_param SCRIPT_FILENAME $document_root$fastcgi_script_name; fastcgi_param PATH_INFO $path_info; fastcgi_param HTTPS on; fastcgi_param modHeadersAvailable true; fastcgi_param front_controller_active true; fastcgi_pass nextcloud; fastcgi_intercept_errors on; fastcgi_request_buffering off; } location ~ ^\/(?:updater|oc[ms]-provider)(?:$|\/) { try_files $uri/ =404; index index.php; } location ~ \.(?:css|js|woff2?|svg|gif|map)$ { try_files $uri /index.php$request_uri; add_header Cache-Control "public, max-age=15778463"; add_header Referrer-Policy "no-referrer" always; add_header X-Content-Type-Options "nosniff" always; add_header X-Download-Options "noopen" always; add_header X-Frame-Options "SAMEORIGIN" always; add_header X-Permitted-Cross-Domain-Policies "none" always; add_header X-Robots-Tag "none" always; add_header X-XSS-Protection "1; mode=block" always; access_log off; } location ~ \.(?:png|html|ttf|ico|jpg|jpeg|bcmap)$ { try_files $uri /index.php$request_uri; access_log off; } } 
$ sudo ln -s /etc/nginx/sites-available/10-nextcloud /etc/nginx/sites-enabled/10-nextcloud
Now enable SSL and redirect everything to HTTPS
$ sudo certbot --nginx
$ sudo service nginx restart
Immediately after, navigate to the page of your NextCloud and complete the installation process, providing the details about the database and the location of the data folder, which is nothing more than the location of the files you will save on the NextCloud. Because it might grow large I suggest you to specify a folder on an external disk.

Minarca

Now to the backup system. For this we'll use Minarca, a web interface based on rdiff-backup. Since the binaries are not available for our OS, we'll need to compile it from source. It's not a big deal, even our small Raspberry Pi 4 can handle the process.
$ cd /home/pi/Documents
$ sudo git clone https://gitlab.com/ikus-soft/minarca.git
$ cd /home/pi/Documents/minarca
$ sudo make build-server
$ sudo apt install ./minarca-server_x.x.x-dxxxxxxxx_xxxxx.deb
$ sudo nano /etc/minarca/minarca-server.conf
# Minarca configuration. # Logging LogLevel=DEBUG LogFile=/valog/minarca/server.log LogAccessFile=/valog/minarca/access.log # Server interface ServerHost=0.0.0.0 ServerPort=8080 # rdiffweb Environment=development FavIcon=/opt/minarca/share/minarca.ico HeaderLogo=/opt/minarca/share/header.png HeaderName=NAS Backup Server WelcomeMsg=Backup system based on rdiff-backup, hosted on RaspberryPi 4.docs](https://gitlab.com/ikus-soft/minarca/-/blob/mastedoc/index.md”>docs)admin DefaultTheme=default # Enable Sqlite DB Authentication. SQLiteDBFile=/etc/minarca/rdw.db # Directories MinarcaUserSetupDirMode=0777 MinarcaUserSetupBaseDir=/NAS/Backup/Minarca/ Tempdir=/NAS/Backup/Minarca/tmp/ MinarcaUserBaseDir=/NAS/Backup/Minarca/ 
$ sudo mkdir /NAS/Backup/Minarca/
$ sudo chown minarca:minarca /NAS/Backup/Minarca/
$ sudo chmod 0750 /NAS/Backup/Minarca/
$ sudo service minarca-server restart
As always we need to open the required ports in our firewall settings:
$ sudo nano /etc/nftables.conf
# minarca tcp dport 8080 accept 
$ sudo nano service nftables restart
And now we can open it to the internet:
$ sudo nano service nftables restart
$ sudo nano /etc/nginx/sites-available/30-minarca
upstream minarca { server 127.0.0.1:8080; keepalive 64; } server { server_name minarca.naspi.webredirect.org; location / { proxy_set_header X-Forwarded-Host $host; proxy_set_header X-Forwarded-Server $host; proxy_set_header X-Forwarded_for $proxy_add_x_forwarded_for; proxy_pass http://minarca; proxy_http_version 1.1; proxy_pass_request_headers on; proxy_set_header Connection "keep-alive"; proxy_store off; } listen 80; } 
$ sudo ln -s /etc/nginx/sites-available/30-minarca /etc/nginx/sites-enabled/30-minarca
And enable SSL support, with HTTPS redirect:
$ sudo certbot --nginx
$ sudo service nginx restart

DNS records

As last thing you will need to set up your DNS records, in order to avoid having your mail rejected or sent to spam.

MX record

name: @ value: mail.naspi.webredirect.org TTL (if present): 90 

PTR record

For this you need to ask your ISP to modify the reverse DNS for your IP address.

SPF record

name: @ value: v=spf1 mx ~all TTL (if present): 90 

DKIM record

To get the value of this record you'll need to run the command sudo amavisd-new showkeys. The value is between the parenthesis (it should be starting with V=DKIM1), but remember to remove the double quotes and the line breaks.
name: dkim._domainkey value: V=DKIM1; P= ... TTL (if present): 90 

DMARC record

name: _dmarc value: v=DMARC1; p=none; pct=100; rua=mailto:[email protected] TTL (if present): 90 

Router ports

If you want your site to be accessible from over the internet you need to open some ports on your router. Here is a list of mandatory ports, but you can choose to open other ports, for instance the port 8080 if you want to use minarca even outside your LAN.

mailserver ports

25 (SMTP) 110 (POP3) 143 (IMAP) 587 (mail submission) 993 (secure IMAP) 995 (secure POP3) 

ssh port

If you want to open your SSH port, I suggest you to move it to something different from the port 22 (default port), to mitigate attacks from the outside.

HTTP/HTTPS ports

80 (HTTP) 443 (HTTPS) 

The end?

And now the server is complete. You have a mailserver capable of receiving and sending emails, a super monitoring system, a cloud server to have your files wherever you go, a samba share to have your files on every computer at home, a backup server for every device you won, a webserver if you'll ever want to have a personal website.
But now you can do whatever you want, add things, tweak settings and so on. Your imagination is your only limit (almost).
EDIT: typos ;)
submitted by Fly7113 to raspberry_pi [link] [comments]

[Review] Ranking all the Switch shmups Ep26 – Darius Cozmic Collection Arcade

We’ve all had a game that is a gateway to a specific genre. That one game which made us pay attention to a style of games and allowed us to fully experience the genre. It might not have been the first one we play, but it is definitely one that stays closer to our hearts. For me, this game was Darius.
I’ve mentioned this in the past, but I will say it again: Darius is the shmup that is closest to my heart. I loved the horizontal gameplay, I loved the Silver Hawk, I loved all the huge bosses that looked like fishes. The gameplay also hit bunch of chords that resonate with what I love about shmups. I’ve been waiting so long for this, so alas, I present to you: Darius Cozmic Collection Arcade!
Publisher: ININ Games
Platform: Nintendo Switch
Release date: Jun 16, 2020
Price: $44.99
Tate: Built-in
Darius Cozmic Collection Arcade is a collection of the Darius games released on the arcades. This wasn’t your typical cabinet, as one of its main features was the usage of multiple screens. Darius used 3 screens, while Darius II/SAGAIA used 2 screens. M2 really went out of their way to bring the most authentic arcade experience! The result is impressive to say the least!
This collections includes 4 games:
Darius and SAGAIA include 3 and 2 different versions respectively, bringing it to a total of 7 playable games.

ARCADE GLORY

As hard as this might be to believe, I have never played an arcade Darius game before. I always mentioned Darius as my favorite shmup, but the truth is that I began with the SNES games. I had heard on the street that the arcade versions were superior so I was very excited.
When I booted the original version, I couldn’t help but feel like I was standing next to an actual arcade cabinet. The game greeted me with 3 screens places next to each other on the center of the screen. I was excited to play, so I pressed the coin button. I was not prepared for what I was about to experience…
As soon as I inserted the coin, a typical fanfare played along as my credit counter increased by one. But there was something else. The controller started vibrating to the tune of the music. I just can’t make justice to this effect with words. It felt like being inside an actual arcade cabinet. Vibrations and sound made the experience feel authentic. It made me think about the arcade days where you would hear cabinets everywhere and just feel the energy of the place.
As soon as I started to play, the screen changed and the empty spaces were replaced by arcade artwork. This artwork was exactly the kind you would see pasted near the controllers to show you how to play and other general information. Everything about the game was designed to make you feel like on the arcade. This is the kind of presentation that every other arcade port should try to achieve.

FISH GRAVY

What truly sets apart the Darius Cozmic Collection from any other collection is the amount of features and arcade fidelity that M2 added to the game. Every single aspect, every single menu and every single feature was lovingly added to create a masterpiece.
From the get go, you will be presented with the very familiar “A boss is approaching” message featuring King Fossil. The message just says that your game data is approaching fast. It really is only a fancy way of saying the game is loading, but it sets the tone to the orgasmic experience that you are about to have with the game.
After going through the intro scene, you will be greeted with the main menu which contains all 7 playable titles in this collection. You also have a replay, manual and staff options. If you are wondering where the options are, they are specific for each game, so they must be adjusted from within each game. My only complaint here is that the manual is in japanese. There isn’t much to learn from a manual though. The only thing was the Darius Gaiden capture mechanic, so I picked that one up from the internet.

AN ENTIRE LEGACY

Speaking of the games, 7 different titles can be quite intimidating. If you are anything like me, then chances are you don’t know what’s “new ver” or “extra ver”. Thankfully, each game features a sort of museum display that features a screenshot of the menu, the title, the launch date and a very thorough description of the game. The text will navigate you through each version of the games and specifically highlight why it is different from its predecessor or what was changed when going to western markets.
Each game includes a training mode for those who wish to challenge specific parts of the game. Training mode will let you choose to play any stage and customize a variety of settings such as the strength of your Silver Hawk and the game rank, which is the in-game difficulty. The obvious use for this mode is to practice your piloting skills and go for the 1CC. Even casual players can view this as a pseudo level select cheat code for maximum enjoyment!
Perhaps one of the most amazing inclusions of the collection is the replay mode. For every one of your play throughs, there is an option to save a replay of your play session. What differs from regular replays, is that they pack an incredibly robust set of features. Other than being able to watch a recording of yourself, you can see your inputs and control the playback of the replay. You can rewind, fast forward, go back, increase the speed or even go full slow-mo to analyze your gameplay.

KING OF THE ARCADE

Challenging oneself is one thing, but going after the world is the true spirit or arcade shmups. Darius Cozmic Collection Arcade features online rankings which are separated into 2 categories: “Arcade” and “All-mix”. Arcade is played with every setting on default and using only one credit. If you are playing and choose to spend an additional credit to continue, then your scoring is changed to “All-mix”. All-mix is a catch-all for every other style, from easy difficulty to hard or even static rank modes.
If you ever wondered what’s it like to play like the king of the leaderboards, then you’ll be glad to know you can download leaderboard replays! This allows you to watch the entire play throughs of top players, along with their inputs and the previously mentioned playback features of a replay. A must have for those willing to go for the record or even those curious about what it means to be a champion.

YOUR PERFECT CABINET

The in-game menu for each game will further let you customize your gameplay experience. The amount of options is truly staggering, so suffice to know that you can change in-game setting as difficulty and score for an extend, screen quality adjustments like scan lines and gadgets, and the controllers.
One menu I really want to highlight is the gadgets menu. Gadgets are responsible for making the gameplay experience truly stand out. They track all sorts of data from yourself and the enemies. From a friendly side, you can see your current level of power, the number of hits your arm can take and the information related to the current zone. From a less friendly side, you have all sorts of analyzers that display the current boss, their weakness and detailed HP for each of their parts. There’s even a life gauge that appears at the bottom of the screen for easy viewing when fighting bosses!
Although I could see an argument against being way too much information, I’m personally thankful because I’m a data nerd and I love knowing all this information. If it is too much for you, then you can always turn off the gadgets and customize the screen to your liking. The real beauty comes from creating your perfect cabinet.

THE EMULATOR ADVANTAGE

One of the main selling points of emulators has been the ability to use save states. Darius Cozmic Collection is no slouch and features save states of its own! These save states will let you cheese the game as much as you want, but they also let you replay specific sections and master them for your future arcade runs. I won’t judge you, so have fun with save states! The only caveat is that using save states will not record your score. Unfortunately, replays will only record from the last time you loaded the save state onwards. So there’s no chance of creating tool-assisted runs.
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that bringing up the in-game menu will completely pause the game and show you a fully-fledged map of the game, complete with boss encounters for each zone and the amount of power-ups featured in said zone. It really is great for strategy purposes to know which stage will allow you to upgrade your Silver Hawk! Resuming a game will also give you a 3 second count down with a jumping robot animation to ensure you are ready for action. This detail wasn’t really needed, but it is one of the many ways in which M2 shows appreciation for Darius and the player.
Out of all this nitty gritty details, I have to say the song name is one of my favorites. In the bottom right corner of the screen there is a pop-up that appears when the song changes and displays the song name. I just think it looks really cool. By the way, don’t forget to check “Olga Breeze”, my favorite song!

DARIUS, THE OG

Darius, the game that started it all. Featuring 3 screens, this is the biggest Darius game featured in this collection (ha!). If I may add, I also think this is the game that highlights all the love M2 poured into bringing arcade experiences to your living room. With features such as the cabinet art and the body sonic vibration, it really brings home the arcade feeling.
As you can expect, playing the first game on the series is both, a nostalgic and a painful experience. Playing on 3 screens is truly magical, but at the same time, it is a victim to the older design choices. Not much that can be done here, after all, it is a decades old game. Just a small detail to keep in mind.
Darius helps establish the foundations of the franchise from the very first game. One of the Darius staples is the upgrade system for the Silver Hawk. Throughout the game, you can encounter 3 different orbs which are dropped by different colored enemies. The orbs can be red, green or blue.

SILVER HAWK

Red orbs will upgrade your primary fire. Each orb increases your power, but collecting 7 will upgrade your shot to the laser, and then the wave. Green orbs will upgrade your bomb, which is your secondary fire. Bombs also get stronger with more orbs and also upgrade when you reach 7. Blue orbs will give you a shield called arm. The initial shield blocks 3 hits and any additional orb will add 1 more hit. Just like red and green, you can upgrade after 7 orbs which will make it so that additional orbs give you 2 hits and then 3.
The downside to the upgrade system is that, upon death, you will lose every orb you collected in your current tier. The good news is that if you, for instance, managed to upgrade to the laser, then your shot can never fall below that. The bad news is that the number of orbs is limited per stage, which means it is almost impossible to upgrade within a stage the same stage where you died. The exception is a single stage that has 7 blue orbs in the old version and one with 7 green in the extra version.

THE FISH

The most distinguishable characteristic of the franchise is definitely the marine bosses. The stages are all over the place with a very diverse space settings, but the bosses are always one thing: fish. Actually, I’d say it is marine biology, but fish is an overly simplistic way to describe it. Darius also has one peculiarity which is that every set of stages has the same boss. For example, the 4th stage boss will always be Fatty Glutton in a different version depending on which zone you chose.
The other defining feature of Darius is being able to choose your adventure. After each boss, you can choose to go to one of 2 different zones. This choice is made by either being on the top or bottom half of the screen, as the stage actually splits after beating the boss. It certainly took me off guard the first time as I crashed into the divider. Despite having the same boss, the zones are drastically different and carry the strategic choice of having a different number of orbs. Your path will be determined by which aspect of your Silver Hawk you want to improve.

THE COINS

What struck me the most about Darius is how unforgiving it is. This is expressed in the descriptions of the newer versions. The thing about Darius, is that the game is next to impossible to beat if you didn’t fully upgrade. Later enemies are merciless and if you don’t have sufficient firepower, then you probably won’t stand a chance. This ruthlessness is exacerbated by the death system, as death will set you considerably behind. Because upgrades are usually a 2-stage effort, getting shot will set you back 2 levels worth of progress.
A fun aspect I found on Darius is the dynamic created by having 3 screens. This is probably the widest game I have played, and it brings new challenges to the table. The first one is that you need to gain screen position to succeed. Being at the front is usually better, with moving back feeling like losing real estate. The reason behind this is that you are able to shoot down enemies before they become a threat with their numbers. The other less obvious reason is the number of bullets allowed on screen. That number is limited, so it is in your best interest that those bullets expire fast so you can fire new ones. Being back equals more time before they reach the end of the screen, which is undesirable.
Overall, the game poses a unique challenge, but I’m not going to lie, it is actually really fun to play. Achieving an upgraded Silver Hawk is a hard endeavor, but that makes it even more rewarding when you pull it off!

DARIUS II/SAGAIA, THE PROOF US WESTERNERS HAVE SHORT ATTENTION SPANS

Darius II came in and simplified the game in some interesting ways. First of all it reduced the upgrade system so that it is now only a single stage that can be maxed out. The number of orbs was reduced to compensate. Another simplification comes courtesy of the screens themselves. The number of screens was reduced from 3 to 2 in order to be installed in other dual screen cabinets such as The Ninja Warriors.
Unfortunately, the single stage of upgrades means that the game is even more savage when you die. This time around, you actually lose all of your progress in terms of firepower. There will be special rainbow orbs which help you catch up a little, but even then they might be a little too late. As a result, my 1CC had to be done by never dying.

I ALWAYS WANTED A THING CALLED A TUNA SASHIMI

One thing I want to mention, is that Darius II has my absolute favorite intro sequence of any Darius game in this collection. From the music that goes ramping up to the main theme, to the voice lines calling out the launching sequence:
“Main engine energy level, 20% increase !”
“I always wanted a thing called tuna sashimi”
“3…2…1…”
It all creates an unbelievable sense of excitement!
A very fun piece of trivia is the existence of SAGAIA. It exists to be a compact version of Darius II to be sold on western markets. Then there’s actually 2 versions of it which feel like 2 pieces of the same game. If SAGAIA trimmed certain pieces of the game, then version 2 came to use those trimmed pieces and created another entry. It’s actually quite funny.

DARIUS GAIDEN, THE KING

Darius Gaiden is definitely the reason you will keep playing the arcade collection. Quality in older games under a modern eye is usually a product of nostalgia and design elements that still hold on in today’s gaming landscape. Contrasting with that, Darius Gaiden IS a fantastic game that I wouldn’t hesitate to purchase if it was released today.
For Darius Gaiden, less is more, as this time around the game was played on a single screen arcade cabinet. The game does seem to lack some of the ambient goodies such as the rumble effects, but it makes up for it in gameplay experiences.

TRUE POWER

One aspect that is radically different from its predecessor is the upgrade system. Whereas Darius II simplified the Silver Hawk upgrade system, Darius Gaiden took it back to its original Darius roots. This means that, once again, we have multiple upgrade points. Upgrades take considerably less red power-ups to achieve, which actually makes it possible to upgrade multiple times during the same stage.
Death penalties are lower as well with death only losing you a level of power. Because there are more power levels, it is more forgiving and doesn’t set you completely behind like the previous entries. Perhaps the best of all is that neither arm nor bombs have any penalty whatsoever. What’s more, you don’t even lose your arm or bomb level when losing a credit. I can say with 100% certainty that this game is actually possible to complete within a reasonable number of credits if you die on the later zones.
I would take it one step ahead and say this game has a little of the Contra syndrome. The original Contra is a game that was considered hard, but was significantly easier if you could maintain the spread shot. In the same vein, getting the earliest upgrades makes Darius Gaiden a breeze. A well deserved victory, if you ask me.

YOU’RE MINE NOW!

New to Darius Gaiden is the ability to capture mid bosses. Half-way through a stage, you will encounter a medium sized boss with a purple orb somewhere in its back. If you manage to take down the orb without killing the enemy, it will detach and slowly drift away. If you capture this orb, then the mid boss will fight alongside you until its timer expires. I gotta say that having a huge fish on your side is surprisingly satisfying!
Having a single screen makes the experience much more familiar for shmup enthusiasts. While it does lose some of the charm of the ultra wide field of view, it also rids itself of nuances such as your horizontal movement being low in terms of total horizontal space or the limit on on-screen bullets.
A combination of those factors I mentioned contribute to making Darius Gaiden a much better experience. It’s simple to play and forgiving when you lose. Every stage is unique and makes every new play through a completely different experience, not just in a different-ish way, but rather full blown new content!

A LEGENDARY PACKAGE OF NOSTALGIA

There’s one thing that you might be thinking, and that’s that I might be biased because it is Darius. It is true that I openly admit everywhere that Darius is my favorite. However, in this particular case my work was cut out for me, I don’t need to be biased because this is truly a wonderfully crafted collection that deserves to be on everyone’s Switch.
It contains every possible version of Darius you might have encountered on the arcades and then sprinkled some top notch features that make it stand on a class of its own when it comes to ports. It also helps that the Darius games remain to be as fun as they always have been, even with their caveats. I took 3-4 times more time to play this collection, not because it had a lot of content, but because I loved playing every second of it and wanted to try it all. Wanted to 1CC every version, wanted to traverse every possible stage, wanted to created masterful replays.
The only possible downside I can see to this collection is the price. $44.99 is a very high price compared to other shmups on the market. In terms of features and overall content (because remember, every game has more than an alphabets worth of different zones) it does warrant its price. Although I can see people double guess their decision, with this game being close to the cost of a first party title and significantly higher than other shmups.

TOP 3

My tentative placement for Darius Cozmic Collection Arcade was on the top 3 spots. I really had a hard time deciding where to put it, so I went back and revisited both Ikaruga and Psyvariar Delta. After finishing my Ikaruga play through, I was reminded of the magic that is Ikaruga and how special it is. Psyvariar Delta also reminded me of the buzz system and how the refined gameplay and level ups work towards creating an experience that I can’t quite put into words.
The main defining factor, however, was that I don’t think any of the Darius games in the collection beats the top 2 contenders. The 7 games as an aggregate, are certainly a force to be reckoned with thanks to the superb M2 porting labour. With that being said, I will award it a 3rd spot because the gameplay experience is incredible, but a little held back by the age of the games and the hefty price tag.
Still, Darius will always be #1 in my heart.

THE RANKING SO FAR:

  1. Ikaruga
  2. Psyvariar Delta
  3. Darius Cozmic Collection Arcade
  4. Devil Engine
  5. Rolling Gunner
  6. Blazing Star
  7. Jamestown+
  8. Tengai
  9. Steredenn: Binary Stars
  10. Stardust Galaxy Warriors: Stellar Climax
  11. Sky Force: Reloaded
  12. Strikers 1945
  13. Black Paradox
  14. R-Type Dimensions EX
  15. Sine Mora EX
  16. Shikhondo – Soul Eater
  17. Ghost Blade HD
  18. AngerForce: Reloaded
  19. Aero Fighters 2 (ACA Neogeo)
  20. Q-YO Blaster
  21. Lightening Force: Quest for the darkstar (Sega Ages)
  22. Pawarumi
  23. Red Death
  24. Task Force Kampas
  25. Switch ‘N’ Shoot
  26. Last Resort (ACA Neogeo)
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Expiry Times for Binary Options Trading - BO207

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